Avril Lavigne has, believe it or not, only had 1 career #1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 (that being "Girlfriend" in 2007). She has been close to the top many times, including 4 top 10 hits from 2004 or earlier, but has only hit the high mark once. However, since "Girlfriend", Avril hasn't even been able to produce another top 10 song. Is it possible that "Smile" could send her career back in the right direction?
The answer to that question should be a resounding "yes". "Smile" stems directly from what made her previous songs hits - electric guitar here, drums there, and so on. However, the best part of the song may actually be Avril herself gritting the song out of her teeth, screaming every last word. Few artists can pull this feat off without sounding utterly annoying, but Avril herself has done it throughout her whole career; and it shows in "Smile".
However, the reason I say that this should be a hit single (not that it will be a hit single) is because of the change in the music business in the past few years. Songs are more about the music and less about the vocals these days, which puts "Smile" in an awkward position with a rock instrumental that doesn't contain a catchy beat and lacks complexity.
I am currently wishing for this song to become a hit, but it is also the type of song that tends to grow old quick, which doesn't bode well for long-term sales.